Alfa Romeo Giulia Forum banner

121 - 140 of 225 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
55 Posts
The problem isn't that some people will die - as for now everybody already knows that there would be deaths and so far they can't be prevented.

Biggest problem is to prevent total health system collapse as this is not your ordinary influenza - most of the population will have it just as regular flu and it should go away. However there is rather high percentage of severe cases and there would be not enough hospitals to treat all those cases. On news from Spain they said that calculating from Italy's model they would have severe cases of around 250000 people who would need intensive care and Spain only has around 200000 places in total in hospitals.
That's is why all this quarantine, closed borders and limited travel to minimum between countries.
Today is third day as our country is under quarantine and you can already feel it's effect.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,356 Posts
I was thinking economist.
😂 aren’t they synonymous? Although his estimates of potential fatalities seem even further off than the typical economist’s guesstimates.

Most people will recover from the economic impact of the mitigation actions, while few will recover from dead If we don’t take drastic steps now to stop/slow the spread.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,319 Posts
The draconian responses to Covid-19 may have worked in China and S.Korea so far and hopefully will work in the US, bringing back some normality to daily life sooner than otherwise. But whenever drastic measures are deployed rapidly in anything, unintended consequences will occur to the long term detriment of society. In this case the destruction of sectors of the economy, like small businesses and independent contractors, decimation of savings for seniors and sick people, lack of food for poor schoolchildren who rely on school lunches for nutrition and discrimination against people who appear to be sick are a real possibility. This could be far worse in the long term than a few thousand deaths and an unpleasant illness for most infected people. Something to think about.
In theory I agree. But, let's say 70% of the US population (327 million) gets infected.
At a mortality rate of 3%, that would mean close to 10 million deaths.. way more than a few thousand.
Which may happen regardless of the measures taken, no question about that. Thing is, hospitals will be absolutely overwhelmed with people struggling to breathe and will postpone all other activities (surgeries, treatments) like it's currently happening in Italy. So if you need a cancer removed or get in an accident you're screwed.
On the other hand million of jobs lost will cause suffering as well.
Hard to tell what is worse...
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
32 Posts
Yesterday, a surgeon in one of San Francisco’s largest and best hospitals told me that almost all of the operating rooms in Italy have been turned into Intensive Care Units. They still do not have an adequate number of ICU’s to meet the demand.

She is an oncologist. She has been told that it is likely that operating rooms here will soon be converted and that “non essential” surgery will be prohibited. What will she do without available operating rooms? She does not do “non essential” surgery.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
52 Posts
To be honest, I have been back and forth on this.

Lack of information, disinformation and a reluctance on the medical community to communicate not just precautions, but realistic expectations on who will most adversely be affected.

It is disappointing when students lose school time and graduations when I see old people in motorized carts shopping. WTF!!!!!!!

They should be telling those of older age and those with compromised medical situations to self quarantine. As they have said, no way to contain something like this, but only mitigate. Who knows how many have it, but don't show symptoms.

Testing in the U.S. is piss poor, requiring prior approval and results in several days, not hours. My wife is an ICU nurse btw. Her hospital is prepared, but so far no cases, because no effing testing unless you have been in China or S Korea. Italy? Nope, doesn't qualify.

We all could have it right now. Economies in ruin with real loss to the working poor and small business' because of dumb asses in charge.

And lets all learn from this. No more live animal markets please.

Sorry for the rant.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,420 Posts
To be honest, I have been back and forth on this.

Lack of information, disinformation and a reluctance on the medical community to communicate not just precautions, but realistic expectations on who will most adversely be affected.

It is disappointing when students lose school time and graduations when I see old people in motorized carts shopping. WTF!!!!!!!

They should be telling those of older age and those with compromised medical situations to self quarantine. As they have said, no way to contain something like this, but only mitigate. Who knows how many have it, but don't show symptoms.

Testing in the U.S. is piss poor, requiring prior approval and results in several days, not hours. My wife is an ICU nurse btw. Her hospital is prepared, but so far no cases, because no effing testing unless you have been in China or S Korea. Italy? Nope, doesn't qualify.

We all could have it right now. Economies in ruin with real loss to the working poor and small business' because of dumb asses in charge.

And lets all learn from this. No more live animal markets please.

Sorry for the rant.
apparently no gatherings of more than 10 people but you can stand in line at supermarket with 800 people, use the same credit card pad and 1.6 million people voted at democratic primary in Florida. You can get on a city bus, stand in line for Starbucks at least until one of those workers test positive. CVS filled with 100 people. I presume who need medications and that goes against all logic considering they are vulnerable. Banks closed except at a and drive thru. Does that vacuum case at bank get sanitized after every use? They send a mouse through with Purell lathered all over it and run up and down the tube after each use? But you better close that car wash, golf course and gym. Can you get more socially distant from someone than on a golf course? I mean you are usually hundreds of yards apart. It will be the poor and desperate people to end the quarantine when after two weeks or a month of no money they decide to take their chances and go back to work in order to not lose a home or car. When trump gives out that $1000 will the democratic citizens who hate him donate it to republican friends?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
5,531 Posts
I see dark houses of families whose kids are on spring break. Did they go to Florida, despite Disney and some beaches being closed? Are they holed up somewhere they believe to be safer? Hunkering at home doesn't seem such a hardship. I'm getting a decent amount of work done. The weather is nice, so we can go for walks and do yardwork. I'll probably want to run to the store in a week or two to re-stock "freshies". It was pretty empty the last time I went. My biggest question is "am I incubating?". Is there any way to know without testing? Is there any reason to let it drive me nuts?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
40 Posts
unfortunately that has become the cold hard truth in Italy right now. it is combat triage, where the Doctors have to make an assessment on whether or not the ventilators & other limited equipment should be used on some people who really have a slim chance of survival to begin with. There is an Italian Doctor in Torino who was interviewed in between shifts, I think it was Sky News.
I live in Torino and my wife is a resuscitant anesthesiologist, the type of doctor who manages intensive care units in Italy, in these weeks she doesn't work because on maternity leave. For now in term of resuorces we're really close to the saturation of the places and doctors and nurses are working on 12h shifts no stop, in parallel all the hospitals have put in place a plan to double the ICU beds, but now the bottleneck is the availability of medical equipment (mechanical breathing). Import from other state is impossible and the internal production will take some weeks to recover to the request. So we really hope that in the next days we'll be able to overcome the peak or will be a drama.

Consider that the italian medical culture is used to working practically with "infinite" resources, no matter what you have and who you are and the possibility of success, you are guaranteed the best possible care. Obviously in this situation things are going to change.

For who thinks that this is just a flu, that won't touch them or their family, that is a problem of the sick and old people, I want give you two figures:
  • 31.500 people infected (over 130.000 tests) --> is expected that real infected is x 20 or x 50
  • 2.500 deads --> around the 11 % is in between 50 and 70, it makes 275 people
Now we're in lockdown since Monday 9th till the 25th but is expected it will be extended for another one or two weeks, the economy will have serious repercussions from what will probably be a month off, many will lose money for this situation, we all are going to pay the cost for this effort, but I'm proud that we choose to put people over money.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
197 Posts
.... When trump gives out that $1000 will the democratic citizens who hate him donate it to republican friends?
With my apologies to all non-US forum members, it is always interesting how our ‘liar-in-chief’ appropriates ideas as his own: “The White House abrupt shift to embrace direct payments to individuals was a clear reaction to sentiments in the senate, where Republicans and Democrats alike have raced to propose direct payments…”.
This is a dire situation we are all in, health-wise and economy-wise. Let’s work together to make the best of a horrible situation.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,420 Posts
When people don’t have weed and Alcohol it will get worse. Maybe this is a good time for people to sober up and exercise. Diabetes is a major factor in deaths related to corona. A disease that is 100% curable through diet and exercise. Kills many many times more people worldwide. Wonder why there isn’t mandatory exercise practices. Social exercise distancing. Imagine if people cared more about their own bodies than a car or watch or Politics. Right now most people have 24 hrs a day to exercise in isolation and will choose to “catch up” on work lol.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
717 Posts
Grazie @Gianfranco per la tua costante updates. La mia famiglia a Belluno e anche tutta chiusa in casa, pero stanno bene. Forza per tutti voi. In un messe, tutto questo sara pasato. We all just need to embrace and follow the direction, recommendation and guidelines of the medical authorities. We are here learning from the Italian experience and I am positive that the travel bans, social distancing (and the please stay at home pledge) and quarantines will slow down the spread and will help to avoid the hospital collapse. The economy will suffer big time and will rapidly recover, when everyone is back strong and healthy. The lost lives because of negligence, under-estimate the history, over-estimate the own health and youth, and unfortunate contamination will never be recovered. Forza !!!!!
 

·
Super Moderator
Joined
·
1,066 Posts
@JeFizz, @EricVonHa, @FNM, what are you guys doing?. Are you guys in quarantine somewhere with no access to internet and to the Forum which you are supposed to be Super Moderators?. There is here even one guy that he thinks he is God.
Doing just fine, thank you. It is interesting to hear perspectives from around the world but perhaps with a little/lot less politics interwined?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,169 Posts
"Less politics"
Some can't help themselves .... post above ending with "work together" but starting with ....
Heres a fact, no one knows what the best answer approach to all this will turn out to be, and there is no good solution. Of course adjustments to policies will be made as things progress - and no matter how it turns out, there will be those second guessing/criticizing for political purposes to further their November hopes.
Edit - all this in a country where, other than november, the biggest concern seems to be a panic run on toilet paper.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
52 Posts
I have decided to widen my search by considering other colors and options that dealers have on hand right now.

I am going to hold out for the probably inevitable 0% financing and use my 1,000 dollar check from Donny to swap out the wheels if I need to.

Not to beat a dead horse, but I would like more information on the ages of those needing hospitalization. I read that the death rate for all those under 30 was 0%. The numbers should be broken down into age groups and comorbidity factors. In addition, what is the risk to pregnant women. I haven't heard any info.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
40 Posts
I have decided to widen my search by considering other colors and options that dealers have on hand right now.

I am going to hold out for the probably inevitable 0% financing and use my 1,000 dollar check from Donny to swap out the wheels if I need to.

Not to beat a dead horse, but I would like more information on the ages of those needing hospitalization. I read that the death rate for all those under 30 was 0%. The numbers should be broken down into age groups and comorbidity factors. In addition, what is the risk to pregnant women. I haven't heard any info.
here you can find all the updated data on the Italian situation. The brakes for age of the victim is updated at last Sunday and is 0 below 30. At the moment mother-child vertical infection does not appear to have been shown, but very little is known about the virus. 70% of the infected with symptoms are men, and childs seems to be protected.

The break of the data for hospitalization is not present, but is present the walk for each of the country affected.

It is not easy to compare different countries because of the different strategies in diagnosing and counting victims, but the trends are really very similar.

 

·
Registered
Joined
·
251 Posts
In theory I agree. But, let's say 70% of the US population (327 million) gets infected.
At a mortality rate of 3%, that would mean close to 10 million deaths.. way more than a few thousand.
Which may happen regardless of the measures taken, no question about that. Thing is, hospitals will be absolutely overwhelmed with people struggling to breathe and will postpone all other activities (surgeries, treatments) like it's currently happening in Italy. So if you need a cancer removed or get in an accident you're screwed.
On the other hand million of jobs lost will cause suffering as well.
Hard to tell what is worse...
Worst case scenarios are doomsday. The reality, as testing expands and many more infections are reported, is that the relative mortality rate drops significantly versus those who will recover. The mortality rate will probably level out somewhere close to other respiratory viral illnesses, so the potential for death from Covid-19 is a little exaggerated right now. Until the entire population can be tested we simply don't know what the mortality rate is as a percentage of infections, but it's not 3% or more for sure. The problem with Covid-19 is the ease with which it expands into the population as the virus remains effective longer than the average flu virus, which is why isolation and quarantine apparently works, as evidenced by the Chinese and S.Korean experience so far
 
121 - 140 of 225 Posts
Top